PMABI

Precision Bid Intelligence

Ingest & reconcile Member-month profiles Cohorts Population forecast

PHI boundary · public data only below

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RoadmapMedicaid MCO · Stop-loss
(greyed: not in CY2028 scope)

Meridian Health Plan·CY2028 bid·data as of Dec 31 2026 freeze·model v2.3.1deterministic · v2.3.1

Illustrative — fictional plan and members Backtest Pipeline overview

Cohorts

Cohorts built from member-month profiles, each with member count, projected PMPM and trend contribution in bps. Click a cohort to see its members and its month-by-month contribution.

Named cohorts · trend contribution

+211 bps

Model-suggested

+11 bps

Challenger trend · CY2028

7.4%

Cohort table · CY2028 projectedclick a cohort → members and trend contribution over time

Cohort	Members	Projected PMPM	80% interval	Trend contribution	$ at risk	Definition basis	Owner
{{c.name}} MODEL-SUGGESTED	{{c.n}}	{{c.pmpm}}	{{c.iv}}	{{c.bps}}	{{c.usd}}	{{c.basis}}	{{c.owner}}
All named + suggested	24,720			+222 bps	$55.9M	of 7.4% Challenger trend; remaining book contributes +518 bps at baseline utilization

1 bps of trend ≈ $252K on Meridian's $2.52B premium base. Cohorts overlap; members are attributed to their highest-contribution cohort for tie-out.cohort defs v2.3.1 · reviewed by chief actuary

Cohort

{{cur.name}}

Members{{cur.n}}Projected PMPM{{cur.pmpm}} · 80% {{cur.iv}}Trend contribution{{cur.bps}} · {{cur.usd}}Why it exists{{cur.why}}

Trend contribution by month · CY2028, bps

Highest-contribution members (fictional)

Member	Median	80%	Evidence
{{m.n}}	{{m.med}}	{{m.iv}}	{{m.ev}}

Deploy a program on this cohort See in forecast